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杨德龙:美联储加息周期即将结束。新兴市场面临新浪财经的转折点

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  • 2019-03-13
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简介本周,美联储将举行今年的最后一次货币政策会议。利率上调的预期相对较高,超过60%,与此前市场预期的100%相比。为什么在不久的将来,预期

    本周,美联储将举行今年的最后一次货币政策会议。利率上调的预期相对较高,超过60%,与此前市场预期的100%相比。为什么在不久的将来,预期这种利率增长的可能性会降低?This is because of the recent cooling of the US economy and the volatility of global stock markets, the Feds attitude towards interest rate hikes has become less firm, and President Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed Chairman Powell for continuing to raise interest rates, which led to the decline of U.S. stocks. Of course, there are some elements of shirking responsibility, but in the case of a slowdown in the U.S. economic recovery and low inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve has been criticized by some people for continuing to raise interest rates. Of course, the Federal Reserves decision-making is independent, not influenced by the President of the United States, nor by short-term market fluctuations, so the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this time remains high. But judging from Powells previous remarks, he has changed his tone. In early November, Powell said that the benchmark interest rate in the United States is far from neutral, while in late November, Powells change to the benchmark interest rate in the United States is close to neutral, triggering speculation that the Feds interest rate hike cycle may end earlier. Since December 2015, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times, and the benchmark federal rate range has risen to 2% to 2.25%. The further rise in interest rates may have a greater impact on the economy, especially on the capital market. With the marginal effect of tax cuts and the negative impact of trade frictions, the U.S. economy may fall into recession after 2020, forcing the Federal Reserve to end the current interest rate hike cycle next year. 一些经济学家甚至认为,加息应暂停在十二月。可以肯定的是,美联储的加息周期即将结束,将对全球资本市场的影响。根据历史经验,一般来说,在美联储的加息周期,新兴市场表现不佳,而美国股市表现相对较好。与美联储结束加息周期的预期,这是新兴市场的一个主要的好处,往往在美联储加息周期的结束,新兴市场将迎来转机。我们可以看到,美国股市最近大幅下跌,但A股和香港股市并未跟随大幅下跌,但略有调整。很明显,他们已经开始走出独立行情。如果我们能够确认美联储决定结束明年的加息周期,那么A股和香港股票的表现将好于预期。新浪声明:Sina的张贴文章出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者对自己的经营风险。责任编辑:Tao Ran

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